A small percentage of workers' compensation low back pain (LBP) claimants experience a long duration disability and account for the large majority of compensation costs.  Using classification-style evaluations administered early in the time course of the disability, previous studies have attempted to predict a claimant's disability duration as long vs. short.  Presumably, early identification of long duration disability claimants would allow application of directed/targeted intervention, leading to a decrease in subsequent disability duration and cost.  This paper presents a simple mathematical model of the cost-benefit expected from this type of intervention.  The mathematical model leads to a cost-benefit equation with eight free parameters.  Techniques for eliminating/estimating four of these parameters, combined with a technique for visualizing the remaining four parameters, allow a cost-benefit surface to be graphed with a three-dimensional plot.  This model should be useful in quantifying the expected cost savings due to early intervention of targeted LBP cases.

Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 155-166, 1997 (see also errata in Vol. 7, No. 4, p. 253, 1997)